Risiko Kelemahan: Mengapa Pelabur Takut Kehilangan Wang, Bukan Hanya Volatiliti
Anda tahu, dalam dua dekad saya mengharungi lautan kewangan yang sering bergelora, saya telah melihat ramai pelabur bergelut dengan konsep risiko. Tetapi inilah perkara yang perlu diingat: tidak semua risiko dianggap sama dalam fikiran mereka. Walaupun ahli akademik dan kuant mungkin terobsesi dengan volatiliti - garis berombak yang menunjukkan seberapa banyak harga saham bergetar - apa yang benar-benar membuat kebanyakan orang tidak dapat tidur pada waktu malam bukanlah variabiliti itu sendiri. Ia adalah bayangan kehilangan wang. Itulah, rakan-rakan saya, adalah intipati risiko penurunan.
Ia mengenai potensi hasil yang tidak baik, khususnya kebarangkalian dan magnitud kerugian kewangan. Fikirkan tentangnya: adakah ia benar-benar penting jika portfolio anda melambung tinggi pada satu hari jika keesokan harinya ia menjunam, menghapuskan keuntungan tersebut dan lebih lagi? Mungkin tidak. Seperti yang dinyatakan oleh Larry Swedroe dengan bijak, merujuk kepada kajian Jun 2025 oleh Javier Estrada, “pelabur terutamanya bimbang tentang risiko penurunan - risiko kerugian - berbanding dengan hanya variabiliti pulangan” (Alpha Architect, “Adakah Volatiliti ukuran yang baik untuk Risiko Penurunan?”, 11 Julai 2025). Ini bukan sekadar jargon kewangan; ia adalah kebimbangan yang mendalam dan manusiawi yang berakar dalam aversi kita terhadap kerugian.
Selama bertahun-tahun, sisihan piawai pulangan - volatiliti biasa - telah menjadi metrik utama untuk mengukur risiko. Ia mudah untuk dikira, difahami secara meluas dan tersedia di mana-mana. Tetapi mengapa perbezaan ini penting, anda bertanya? Kerana otak kita direka untuk merasakan kesakitan akibat kerugian dengan lebih kuat berbanding kesenangan daripada keuntungan yang setara. Ia dipanggil aversi kerugian dan ia adalah kuasa yang kuat dalam pelaburan. Jadi, walaupun volatiliti menangkap kedua-dua pergerakan ke atas dan ke bawah, kebanyakan pelabur hanya benar-benar peduli tentang satu sisi duit syiling itu apabila ia berkaitan dengan malam tanpa tidur.
Sekarang, terdapat perdebatan yang telah lama wujud dalam kewangan: bolehkah volatiliti benar-benar menggantikan risiko penurunan? Kajian Javier Estrada pada Jun 2025, “Volatiliti: Pengganti yang Tepat untuk Risiko Penurunan,” menyelami isu ini. Beliau melihat data pasaran dari 47 negara sehingga Disember 2024 dan membandingkan bagaimana aset dinilai menggunakan volatiliti berbanding dengan pelbagai metrik risiko penurunan yang lain. Dan “penemuan utama” beliau, seperti yang dilaporkan oleh Alpha Architect, adalah agak menarik: “volatiliti, walaupun dengan hadnya, berfungsi sebagai pengganti yang berkesan untuk risiko penurunan dengan membandingkan bagaimana aset dinilai menggunakan volatiliti berbanding metrik risiko penurunan alternatif” (Alpha Architect, “Adakah Volatiliti ukuran yang baik untuk Risiko Penurunan?”, 11 Julai 2025). Jadi, walaupun puris mungkin ragu-ragu, nampaknya volatiliti bukanlah proksi yang teruk selepas semua, sekurang-kurangnya ketika menilai aset. Namun, untuk pengurusan risiko yang komprehensif, anda memerlukan alat yang lebih khusus.
Jika volatiliti bukanlah gambaran penuh, apakah alat yang kita gunakan untuk mengukur potensi kerugian? Terdapat satu arsenal yang lengkap dan ia menawarkan pandangan yang jauh lebih halus.
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Ukuran Risiko Distorsi These are fascinating mathematical tools that let us adjust the probability distribution of outcomes to better reflect an investor’s true risk appetite – especially their aversion to extreme losses. As the Financial Edge team explains, these measures “distort the actual probability of outcomes… placing greater focus on the adverse outcomes (such as extreme losses) and less on the moderate ones” (Financial Edge, “Distortion Risk Measures", July 14, 2025). This kind of flexibility is a godsend for assessing catastrophic potential and it’s even used in regulatory and stress-testing frameworks.
Two prominent examples you’ll often hear about are:
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Value at Risk (VaR) This tells you, with a certain probability, the maximum you could expect to lose over a specific time horizon. For instance, a 95% VaR of $1 million over one day means there’s a 5% chance of losing more than $1 million in a single day.
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Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) (also known as Expected Shortfall) This goes a step further than VaR. While VaR tells you the threshold of loss, CVaR tells you the average loss you can expect to incur if that threshold is breached. It’s essentially the average of the worst-case scenarios, making it particularly useful for tail risk events.
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Metrik Keburukan Lain yang Penting Beyond distortion measures, several other metrics offer different lenses through which to view downside risk. Javier Estrada’s study highlighted many of these:
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Semi-Deviation (SSD) Unlike standard deviation, which considers all deviations from the mean (both up and down), semi-deviation only accounts for deviations below the mean. It’s a direct measure of downward volatility.
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Probability of Loss (PL) Simply, the likelihood of an investment experiencing a negative return over a given period.
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Average Loss (AL) The average magnitude of losses when they occur.
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Expected Loss (EL) A forward-looking measure of the expected amount of loss over a specific period, often used in credit risk.
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Worst Loss (WL) The single largest loss recorded over a specified period. It’s brutal but direct.
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Maximum Drawdown (MD) This is a personal favorite for many long-term investors. It measures the largest percentage drop from a peak to a trough in an investment’s value before a new peak is achieved. It shows the maximum pain an investor would have endured.
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Ia bukan sekadar konstruk teori; risiko penurunan berlaku dalam ekonomi dan perniagaan sebenar setiap hari.
Angin Ekonomi Makro: Kes Niger dan UK Just last week, the IMF Executive Board completed its reviews for Niger, noting that while growth in 2024 was estimated at a robust 10.3% (driven by crude oil exports and agriculture) and expected to remain strong at 6.6% in 2025, there was still “significant uncertainty around the baseline and downside risks are elevated” (IMF, “IMF Executive Board Completes the Seventh Review of the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and the Third Review of the Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility with Niger", July 14, 2025). See? Even strong growth can have lurking risks when uncertainty is high.
And closer to home for some, the UK economy offered another fresh example. After contracting unexpectedly for a second month in May 2025, official data showed a 0.1% fall in GDP following a 0.3% drop in April. This weak performance, driven by declines in industrial output and construction, "poses downside risks to expectations the economy grew in the second quarter" (Yahoo Finance, “UK economy shrinks again in May, raising new worries over outlook", July 11, 2025). The market even started pricing in a potential Bank of England interest rate cut. When growth falters, those downside risks to future forecasts become very real.
- Pendedahan Mikro: Emisi Karbon dan Risiko Idiosinkratik On the company level, new research continues to uncover previously overlooked sources of downside risk. For instance, a September 2025 study in the International Review of Financial Analysis found that “firms’ carbon emissions significantly contribute to higher idiosyncratic risk” (ScienceDirect, “Carbon emission and idiosyncratic risk: Role of environmental regulation and disclosure", September 2025). Idiosyncratic risk, in simple terms, is the risk specific to a particular company, not the broader market. So, if a company is a big carbon emitter, it faces a higher chance of specific adverse events that could hit its stock price hard. The good news? The study also suggests that “environmental disclosure reduces risks by helping investors assess carbon exposure” (ScienceDirect, “Carbon emission and idiosyncratic risk: Role of environmental regulation and disclosure", September 2025). Transparency, it seems, can mitigate these specific downside exposures.
Jadi, bagaimana kita, sebagai pelabur dan profesional kewangan, sebenarnya mengatasi masalah ini? Dalam kerjaya saya, saya telah melihat bahawa mengurangkan risiko penurunan bukanlah tentang menghapuskannya sepenuhnya - itu mustahil - tetapi tentang mengurusnya dengan bijak.
Berikut adalah beberapa strategi yang saya anggap penting:
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Pempelbagaian, Pempelbagaian, Pempelbagaian This is the old chestnut for a reason. Spreading your investments across different asset classes, industries and geographies reduces the impact of a single negative event. If one part of your portfolio takes a hit, the others might cushion the blow. It won’t protect you from a systemic market crash, but it’s your first line of defense against idiosyncratic risks.
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Ujian Tekanan dan Analisis Senario Don’t just look at what could happen; look at what would happen if things went really wrong. Using tools like VaR and CVaR, combined with thinking through specific “what-if” scenarios (like a sudden recession, a commodity price shock or a major geopolitical event), can reveal vulnerabilities before they become painful realities. I’ve personally conducted countless stress tests for portfolios and it’s always an eye-opener.
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Pengurusan dan Pemantauan Risiko Aktif It’s not a set-it-and-forget-it game. Keep an eye on the macro environment – those elevated downside risks in Niger or the shrinking UK economy are signals. Monitor your portfolio’s specific exposures. If you’re invested in firms with high carbon emissions, for example, are they increasing their environmental disclosures? Are they adapting?
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Memahami Bias Tingkah Laku Anda Sendiri This one is crucial. We all suffer from loss aversion. Acknowledging this helps you avoid panicked decisions during market downturns. It also explains why investors often seek “downside protection” in their investment choices, as research has shown that beliefs about beta can relate to desires for both upside participation and downside protection (Oxford Academic, “Beliefs about beta: upside participation and downside protection", 2025). Knowing yourself is the first step to truly managing risk.
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Kualiti mengatasi Kuantiti Often, focusing on high-quality assets – companies with strong balance sheets, consistent cash flows and defensible competitive advantages – provides a natural buffer against downside shocks. They tend to weather economic storms better than their speculative counterparts.
Sure, please provide the text you would like to have translated into Malay.
Pengambilan: Risiko penurunan adalah risiko yang benar-benar penting bagi pelabur: potensi untuk kerugian. Walaupun volatiliti boleh berfungsi sebagai proksi, pemahaman yang lebih mendalam memerlukan metrik tertentu seperti VaR, CVaR dan Maximum Drawdown. Dari ekonomi negara yang menghadapi ketidakpastian yang tinggi hingga syarikat individu yang bergelut dengan pendedahan karbon, contoh dunia nyata banyak terdapat. Mengurus risiko penurunan dengan berkesan bukanlah tentang mengelakkan semua risiko, tetapi tentang memahami sifatnya yang sebenar, mengkuantifikasi potensi impaknya dan melaksanakan strategi yang kukuh untuk melindungi modal apabila awan ribut yang tidak dapat dielakkan berkumpul.
Apakah risiko penurunan dalam pelaburan?
Risiko penurunan merujuk kepada potensi kerugian kewangan dalam pelaburan, dengan memberi tumpuan kepada hasil yang tidak menguntungkan dan bukannya hanya kepada volatiliti.
Bagaimana ukuran risiko distorsi membantu pelabur?
Ukuran risiko distorsi menyesuaikan taburan kebarangkalian untuk mencerminkan selera risiko pelabur, menekankan kerugian ekstrem untuk penilaian risiko yang lebih baik.